MAGA Without Trump

An intense internal debate is underway within the Republican Party about the future role of Donald Trump. The outcome of this debate will likely determine the direction the party will go in and as such, will directly affect the prospects for either victory or defeat.

From the outset, it is worth noting most of the former President’s policies (MAGA) were good for the country and the world, and we favor them. We applaud the things he did to enhance border security, deregulate American business, make America energy independent, cut taxes, ask the Europeans to pay their own way in NATO, bring Israel and Arab neighbors together (the Abraham Accords), isolate Iran, build up US defenses while at the same time limit our foreign exposure to conflict, and stop Federal agencies from teaching Critical Race Theory.

He also directly involved himself in the “culture wars”, which was a little unusual for a President.  However, his voice was often effective and welcome in the debate. If politics are really downstream from culture, it was important for him to speak out.

Considering impeachment started the day after his inauguration, Trump got a lot of substantive things done, despite all the distractions. But he relied too much on executive orders and hence much of the MAGA agenda was quickly repealed by the next President, Joe Biden.

He can’t be blamed for that reliance since his party did not have complete control of Congress and the fact that he was split with his own party. And, he was harrassed from the get-go by multiple Federal Agencies that acted like a domestic political adversaries. We cannot think of any President in recent or past times, that faced the full force of a shadow government that did not acknowledge his legitimacy. Despite all that, he did get a lot done, albeit temporarily.

Perhaps the most lasting were his appointments to the judiciary.

Coming with that list of impressive accomplishments, comes a set of irascible personality quirks that tends to deflect from the mission. Trump’s ability to counterpunch is impressive, but often he swings wildly and does not connect with his opponent.  He often seems to make contact instead with the referee and even some of his fans.

To take the punishment he has had to endure requires a strong ego. But a strong ego often is tone deaf to how he sounds and impervious to friendly advice.

The last few weeks have been indicative of the problem.  Many of the Trump-endorsed candidates in Arizona and elsewhere, fared worse than those not specifically endorsed. For example, in Arizona, GOP Congressional candidates did rather well, while important state races went to defeat.

His address launching his second campaign for the Presidency was strangely tepid and uninspiring.

His attacks on Ron DeSantis seemed not only childish but off the mark. Jeb was low energy, but Ron is not sanctimonious. It was not even a good jibe by previous Trump standards.

And just as we finally got to focus on election manipulation by the FBI in collusion with Big Tech, Trump deflects the attention back onto himself with very strange statements about repealing the Constitution because of election fraud, irregularities, and interference by Federal intelligence agencies.

The fact that Federal intelligence and law enforcement agencies conspired to undermine his campaign, and his Presidency, confirmed with revelations courtesy of Elon Musk, is a really big and important story.

True, such collusion to undermine the Constitution was suspected, but it is now confirmed. We suspect coming Congressional hearings will find this stinking well to be even deeper.

But Trump tends to shoot from the lip and soon undermined his own argument. If Trump is a threat to the Constitution, maybe such action by intelligence agencies was necessary his opponents will say. Trump responds by giving them more ammunition by oddly suggesting some kind of suspension of our Constitution and laws.

There is no “do-over” provision in the Constitution regarding fraudulent elections, close elections, or manipulated elections. No matter how bitter the loss, there is no extra-Constitutional remedy. The only way to right these historic election results is to win and clean up the system. That is no easy task when your opponents have so cleverly gamed the system. But he actually undermines the ability to clean up the system by speaking emotionally and often unclearly.

Why does he constantly put his supporters in the uncomfortable situation of trying to defend his crazy statements? We should be talking about an agenda to turn this country around.

Our own views are much like our readers.

Internal polls we have taken over months show a weariness with Trump. About two-thirds of our readers want the MAGA agenda that he helped develop, but Trump himself is viewed as increasingly a liability to himself and the MAGA agenda. Our readers have favored Ron DeSantis by better than two to one.

For Trump, it seems that the Republican internal political debate is “all about him” instead of advancing the MAGA agenda. The irony is, the more irrational things he says, the more he does make it about himself.

Meanwhile, the intra-party debate continues. Was the recent poor electoral performance because of a poorly crafted message, inferior candidates, or an electoral process that Democrats are masters at exploiting?

We suggest it is all of the above. The GOP needs improvements on all three fronts.

After the defeat in Georgia, Rich Lowry of National Review said this shows the weakness of the “Trump-era Republican Party”. While Hershel Walker was likely not the best candidate, the Democrat Warnock previously beat an “establishment” Republican and the national chair of the Republican Party is Mitt Romney’s niece. Sorry, dumping on Trump will not solve all the problems because he is not responsible for every Republican miscalculation. However, he does bare significant responsibility himself.

Trump’s record of endorsements has ranged from fair to poor. His chosen candidates do better in primaries, but not well in the general election, especially in swing districts and in places like Arizona that have significant “independent” voters.  Ryan Gidursky of the National Populist Newsletter has produced the following data:

Overall Primary Win Rate                      Overall Win Rate

2018                    90%                                                45%

2020                    93%                                                59%

2022                    83%                                                40%

 

That is quite a mixed bag, isn’t it? We have suggested before that Trump’s endorsements short-circuit the primary process and hence likely produce weaker candidates.

Rebuilding the party will be a big task to get done in the next two years. About the last thing we need is to have the party torn apart by Trump and his loose lips or for anti-Trump fanatics to attack MAGA supporters.

Lurking as a possibility, is Trump losing in the primaries and then trying to go his own way in some sort of third-party venture.

In short, while the party struggles to understand its poor performance and advance an agenda, we don’t need a civil war within the party. If anything, we need a candidate that will appeal to Trump supporters. He has energized the base, widened the base considerably, made historic gains with minority voters, and altered the terms of the national debate. He has much to be proud of.

We can’t win without Trump supporters, and they are not exclusively to blame for the rift within the party. The Republican establishment never accepted Trump and his supporters and hence they were “election deniers” every bit as bad as Trump himself or his supporters.

Once again, electoral success will help clean out RINOs. But Trump’s inappropriate emotional outbursts hurt that cause as well.

Unlike National Review, we don’t hate Trump or his policies.  However, we don’t think Trump can now carry the party or heal its wounds.  He has too much baggage. For us, it is not personal.

What we need now are candidates who can bring the party together and focus the energy of the party on advancing both an optimistic agenda and an effective electoral ground game. 

Increasingly, Mr. Trump does not seem to have learned much from his first term in office and hence looks less and less like a candidate that can unite, lead, and invigorate the party. What you get with Trump seems to come in a package and it appears he is not about to change.

If that is true, and we think it is, we need more MAGA and less Trump.