Recent Months of Immigration Enforcement: Where is the Data Trending?
ANALYSIS
The Southern border is currently seeing record lows in illegal activity, while interior enforcement—specifically deportation—has surged to unprecedented levels. Let’s review the most recent numbers.
FRONT LINE NUMBERS
As of April 9, 2026, the administration has delivered 11 consecutive months of zero releases at the Southern border. Apprehensions hit near-historic lows in early 2026, with January reporting roughly 6,000 encounters—a 95% drop from the peaks seen in late 2024.
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin has pivoted the agency’s focus toward drug interdiction, which reported a 27% increase in fentanyl seizures this March compared to 2024.
While a brief enforcement cool-off did indeed occur in February following major protests and legal challenges to Operation Metro Surge in Minneapolis, things have since accelerated.
National interior deportations in January 2026 were 5 times higher than the average for the month in late 2024. In March 2026 alone, ICE conducted 225 removal flights to 46 different countries—a 23% increase from February. Further, ICE detention reached a record high of 73,000 immigrants in custody this quarter. Internal “shuffle flights”—used to move detainees between facilities to clear space—surged by 147% year-over-year.
HIGH LEVEL CONTEXT
Experts at Brookings and the Deportation Data Project estimate that net migration for 2026 will likely be zero or negative for the first time in half a century.
Judicial Momentum: Immigration judges are now issuing removal orders in over 80% of cases, while relief grants (asylum or legal stay) account for only 1.6%. To back this up even further, the court backlog actually decreased by 60,000 cases between December 2025 and February 2026—the first sustained decrease in the pending caseload in nearly two decades.
THE REVIEW
Negative publicity surrounding the Trump Administration’s actions in Minnesota and then-DHS Chief Noem should not obscure the data. The White House is keeping the focus on one of its top campaign promises, but it should keep its foot on the gas pedal as media attention drifts to foreign policy and the economy.
-The Editors
