Identifying The “Root Causes” Of The Migrant Crisis On The Southern Border: Part 1
Numbers alone do not tell the whole story of the migrant crisis on the southern border, but they do tell a lot. According to official statistics released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, from the beginning of the current fiscal year on October 1, 2020, through June 3, 2021, Border Patrol agents reported 891,213 encounters with undocumented aliens on the southern border. This number includes apprehensions, determinations of inadmissibility, and COVID-related public health expulsions.
In terms of nationality, these numbers represent 389,474 people from Mexico; 167,240 from Honduras; 153,478 from Guatemala; 49,845 from El Salvador; and 137,176 classified as “other” for whom nationality data is not provided.
During her visit to El Paso on June 25, Vice President Harris emphasized that she would focus her attention on determining the “root causes” of the surge of illegal immigration on the southern border. For the four largest identified sending countries – Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador – those “root causes” are not too hard to identify.
Mexico
Occupying a strategic position on the US southern border, Mexico is a country with corrupt institutions and a pressing security burden that causes major problems such as violence and underdevelopment. Mexico may be characterized as a fragile state – one that is unable or unwilling to perform the functions necessary for poverty reduction, the promotion of development, protection of its population, and the observance of human rights – and it is on the way to becoming a failed state. The Mexican government is unable to provide its population with basic goods, such as healthcare and education. Per capita income in Mexico is roughly one-third that of the U.S., income distribution is highly unequal, and in 2018 an estimated 41.9% of Mexico’s population lived below the poverty line.
Mexico is also a major drug-producing and transit nation, and major drug syndicates control most of the drug trafficking throughout the country. Since 2007, Mexico’s powerful drug-trafficking organizations have engaged in bloody feuding, resulting in tens of thousands of drug-related homicides. Mexico has essentially become a kleptocracy and now ranks 124th (of 180 countries) on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. In mid-2020, the Mexican armed forces were directed to take over administration of the country’s land- and seaports and customs services to fight crime and corruption, which most likely will only offer opportunities for even further corruption.
(Sources for Mexico: “Mexico,” in Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook, 2020, Mexico – The World Factbook (cia.gov); Luz Paola Garcia, “Mexico: A ‘Failed State?,’ ” Merion West, November 18, 2019, Mexico: A “Failed State”? | Merion West; Alexander Ginsberg, “is Mexico a Failing State?,” The Strategy Bridge, February 2019, Is Mexico a Failing State? (thestrategybridge.org); Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index, 2020, 2020 – CPI – Transparency.org.)
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Ed Cochran, a retired U.S. Army officer and a retired senior civilian employee of the U.S. Department of Defense, is a regular contributor to The Prickly Pear on national security issues. He holds an MS in Strategic Intelligence from the Joint Military Intelligence College (now National Intelligence University), and an MA in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College. His published work has appeared in The Journal of Strategic Studies, Israel Affairs, Parameters, The International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, and the International Bulletin of Political Psychology.
